WHAT IF ANGAT DAM COLLAPSES? …water seeks its own level.

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…imagining the unthinkable (part 2)…

angat-dam-fault-01

It was recently discovered that a splay of the West Valley Fault runs underneath the 50 year old Angat Dam that is now needing rehabilitation. The issue is, if the West Valley Fault moves and the dam breaks, what can the scenario be?

The simple animation below was created using data from flood.firetree.net which simulate global rises in sea level and calculate the path that water takes when landscapes are flooded.

Angat-Dam-Elevation

 Explanation:

If ocean water were to rise and wrap itself round the mountains to reach Angat Dam in the highland, then the natural pathways it takes to rise there are the same pathways that metric tons of water coming down from Angat Dam will also take should the dam collapse. The main pathway that Angat Lake drains to are the interconnected rivers beginning with Ipo Watershed where Ipo Dam is located, (the following is tagged in Google Earth though not necessarily complete and in the correct order) Bitbit River, Bakas River, Kanyakan River, Norzagaray River, Angat River, San Rafael River, and Bustos River that swells in the containment of Bustos Dam.

Based on land elevation as deduced from how the surrounding terrain responds to the simulated sea level rise, there is possibility of an overspill inland at the river bend near Ipo Dam if metric tons of water from Angat Lake breaks through Angat Dam. The path of the overspill seems to point to Norzagaray and/or San Jose Del Monte in the vicinity of Quirino Highway as entry points for the swelling waters (red arrow below).

Angat Dam Elevation_detour

dam water detour close-up

Please click on image above to OPEN, then click again to ZOOM-IN. To NAVIGATE, click on the scroll wheel (yes click!) between the left and right buttons; then just move the mouse slowly in the desired direction.

The same mechanics also help to identify which terrains can act as barrier to the torrential flow of water and, thus, spare Metro Manila which by then would already be hit by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake as experts predict would happen. The propensity of these natural barriers to protect is confirmed by the high elevation of terrains as shown upon close-up of the images above and below.

Map showing Angat Dam amid the municipalities of Bulacan:

Angat Dam Terrain_THUMB

Please click on image above to OPEN, then click again to ZOOM-IN. To NAVIGATE, click on the scroll wheel then move the mouse slowly in the desired direction.

Map showing Angat Dam amid the provinces of Bulacan and Rizal: (please be patient while heavy image loads slowly; also don’t forget to click the scroll wheel after zooming-in the image)

Angat Dam_Bulacan-Rizal_THUMB

Please click on image above to OPEN, then click again to ZOOM-IN. To NAVIGATE, click on the scroll wheel then move the mouse slowly in the desired direction.

The mountain peaks of Montalban (legit historical name that was changed to its now geographical but politically bootleg name Rodriguez) may all be that stand between Metro Manila, which by then may be reeling from the destruction of a megaquake, and Angat Dam, which could inflict further catastrophic damage had not these mountain peaks instead divert the destructive waters and flood to the lowlands of Bulacan.

THIS IS A SCENARIO THAT CAN BE NOT FAR FROM BECOMING REALITY IF THE RETROFITTING AND REHABILITATION OF ANGAT DAM ARE FURTHER DELAYED DUE TO THE SLOW PROCESS BY WHICH THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT OPERATES.

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storybook6

About Stuvwx

This blog was started in 2013; however, it actually began in 2010 but got corrupted and backups of the original helped to restart the present blog. Prior to 2010, i was emailing people Google maps with the fault trace. But it was in 2005 when i assembled my first map. In 1990, i got ahold of a photocopy of a tabloid size, black and white map when the former Phivolcs head, the late Ricardo Punongbayan gave an earthquake awareness seminar after the July 16 earthquake. i put away the map inside a cannister and rediscovered it 15 years later when i was going through my old stuff. Instantly, sirens went off inside my head and took stock of the situation on what i had: Windows in my computer (DOS ruled PCs 15 years earlier), Adobe Photoshop, a powerful image scanner and, most of all, a coffee table book of tiled large maps of Metro Manila. Fancying what i could accomplish with technology and a 15 year old map, i put my competency at work and scanned images and assembled them on my desktop computer. Lo and behold, even after checking the work several times, i got the jolt of my life when i discovered my rented house was actually sitting on top of a fault line! Not long after, i evacuated and resided far from any faultline. At the time, i was probably one of the few (not that i know anyone else) who assembled a map of the fault line. What were the chances that i assemble a fault line map as a weird activity and suddenly find myself and my family at risk and unaware that a silent, deadly fault line ran directly under our house. It was an epiphany! Since then i knew what i had to do, and God brought everything to pass easily and smoothly. However, truth to tell, creating the maps was so nerve-wracking and I could not have done it all if I weren’t a bit of obsessive-compulsive in me. For many months, everyday I had to devote about four hours piecing together up close snapshots of many topographical maps and later google maps to create this blog. I could say i literally spent tens of kilometers after kilometers assembling detailed maps and from the experience, I made many observations that I made posts of. The gratifying moment came when Phivolcs and the NDRRMC maybe through an influential follower of my blog, I suspect, launched a media blitz with campaign to protect the welfare of students whose schools, and many they are, are in the path of fault lines. I knew my work became basis of this and I couldn’t help but feel that i had accomplished at least one of my life’s purpose. i may just be accomplishing God’s will; but then again, maybe not. Only God knows. “There will be great earthquakes, and there will be famines and plagues in many lands, and there will be terrifying things and great miraculous signs from heaven.” -Luke 21:11 “At that very hour there was a severe earthquake and a tenth of the city collapsed. Seven thousand people were killed in the earthquake, and the survivors were terrified and gave glory to the God of heaven.” -Revelations 11:13 “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places.” – Matthew 24:7 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * “Therefore will not we fear, though the earth be removed, and though the mountains be carried into the midst of the sea;” -Psalm 46:2 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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