(For the past two weeks, i’ve been having reservations of whether or not to push the “publish” button and post this page. It hasn’t been easy for me. But in light of why Phivolcs is in the news almost daily and warning that the West Valley Fault is ripe for moving, and stressing that about 31,000 to 33,500 can die when a 7.2 magnitude earthquake finally happens, i convinced myself that it ought to bring more good than bad if i share this now. i pray that i’m doing the right thing. God help us all.)
“Antipoleño, watch carefully the animated map below and try to get a good sense of its message.
…better yet, if you have Google Earth installed, download this and double-click to “spread” on Google Earth a rough overlay of the “red patch,” which is about 30 meters –plus/minus– that the images therein may be off (what can one expect when i only have to work on this miniscule source, but which have multiple alignment points, however, as provided by the three-toed bird foot shape of the Laguna de Bay for fairly good accuracy).
Connecting the dots…
In 2013, i came across the Philippine Geoportal and have since marveled at its interactive risk maps that carefully assessed the risk of natural hazards in identified Philippine areas “for proper long-term planning in dealing with disaster scenarios.” The web site was the result of a study worth 5.5 million AUD which was funded by the Australian Agency for International Development with the technical support from Geoscience Australia, and led by the government agencies under the Collective Strengthening of Community Awareness on Natural Disaster — composed of the Office of Civil Defense, Mines and Geosciences Bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Phivolcs and National Mapping and Resource Information Authority.
An earthquake study involving the Marikina Valley Fault Line System is only part of what the Philippine Geoportal covers.
Though the web site is a storehouse of information, i noticed it differs in certain ways from my established paradigm of the Marikina Valley Fault Line System. To illustrate, i used a slide of a map from the presentation of Jane T. Punongbayan, Ph.D. from Phivolcs dated Feb. 18, 2011 that I posted here. I compared the map used by Punongbayan with the interactive map from the Philippine Geoportal.
1. The shape and appearance of the Geoportal map (above) appears fuller on the upper part compared to Punongbayan’s leaner map (below) indicating coverage of additional areas in the AusAid study, but which the Geoportal map does not name or specify which location.
Okay. You may notice that i picked the slide with the gruesome topic of “Number of Deaths Analysis.” The reason is, with loss of lives as the ultimate and extreme event that one dreads can happen during an earthquake, there is apparent discrepancy between the two maps that i cannot yet wrap my mind around; although with the Geoportal map that i repeat below, the data shown tell the “Estimated Number of Fatalities M7.2 (absolute)” from a 7.2 magnitude ground shaking, which is the closest category that can compare with the Punongbayan map “Number of Deaths Analysis” data.
Any which way one looks at it, both carry a message of quake carnage!
While the Geoportal map is the latest that can be interpreted (rightly or wrongly) as to supercede the MMEIRS Scenario 08 study of Punongbayan –but then again, maybe not– both deal with the topic of a great number of deaths and fatalities.
The one that boggles the mind is the abrupt change (or call it an about face) in a particular data. In the Punongbayan map, a swath of red color positioned diagonally, like an oil spill, depicts literally a great number of deaths that can occur in a scenario 08, which is a 7.2 magnitude earthquake event. Tagging points on the map and identifying these places on Google Earth reveal the name of the original danger spots. Even on the map itself, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Manila, San Juan, and Mandaluyong, or just portions of these places, can be read.
(*Animation below of the big, big difference between the 2011 Jane Punongbayan map and the 2013 Phil. Geoportal map from the 2013 AusAid Hazard Maps Study.)
With the new data from Philippine Geoportal, i am looking for these original danger spots but it’s as if the slate is wiped clean! So far, what keeps cropping up and almost persistent in trying to be noticed is this unnamed “newcomer” that is quite unmistakable and also so uncanny in appearing with regularity in every ground shaking data. It looks like a giant RED sponge that came out of nowhere and suddenly siphoning off all bad karma to itself, so to speak. Please pay close attention to the animation below:
Why all of a sudden one gets an impression that it is no longer Marikina getting the trauma of having its name attached to the infamous fault line but something else?
Because this big area dotting the landscape like a taunting bullseye appears literally like a red flag waving next to the map label ANTIPOLO, that someone suggested it had to be Antipolo.
Could be. But the problem is Antipolo is not listed in the Phivolcs report entitled “Update on the Earthquake Hazards and Risk Assessment of Greater Metropolitan Manila Area” dated November 14, 2013, as shown below:
In fact, i don’t hear Antipolo being mentioned anywhere near discussions of earthquakes at all, except for a few strange occurrences where my blog’s dashboard detected search engines querying for an “Antipolo fault line” where –to my knowledge– there was none.
As a side note but nevertheless a very important one, one also gets the impression that the West Valley Fault as depicted in the the Philippine Geoportal (below) is cut short and trimmed to appear only in the south, beginning in Muntinlupa and heading southward, and with the East Valley Fault at the other end nonexistent! Unless i missed it (if i did i apologize), but the screen capture below of “Ground Rupture Hazard” is the only data from the Philippine Geoportal that show the location of the West Valley Fault.
What gives? Maybe it’s just a technical glitch or something (maybe because the software is BETA?), but its perceived effect is the West Valley Fault, along with the non-existing East Valley Fault, does not pose danger and spares numerous subdivisions, villages, and communities where the fault lines cut through in deadly anonymity. Compare this side by side with the West and East Valley Faults depicted in the Punongbayan report here, entitled “MMEIRS Scenario 8: Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake along the West Valley Fault System by JANE T. PUNONGBAYAN, Ph.D.,” the discrepancy is glaring that we don’t know what to believe.
While my blog has been keen in pinpointing these subdivisions, villages, and communities that lie clueless to the hidden danger beneath them, with these new developments that appear sanctioned by national officialdom, what can be done to solve the mystery is to locate in Google Earth the places identified with this “newcomer” which seem to bear much of the pain, the curse, and the agony that otherwise would befall on the greater metropolis.
I did not invent this data. It’s been there all along for all to see, and miss! It’s a bitter pill to swallow. It’s the hard truth. But it is the truth that can set many free.
To solve the mystery, let us unravel some facts first –beginning with my accidental discovery of two (2) unaccounted faultlines (since Phivolcs does not name it, i’ll call them the Tulisanes Faultlines 🙂
Below is a blow-up of the area in the yellow circle.
It is interesting to find the two faultlines below (with blue question marks) that lie close to and may even be said to be perpendicular and appear to be intersecting with the East and West Valley Faults, which by themselves are placed curiously parallel. What forces are there present and at the same time hidden as depicted by the strange layout of these four faultlines…
If we were to plug in the data found in the Philippine Geoportal (the red region below) and relate them to the two faultlines (ghostly yellow green lines), and the geography and ROADS and COMMUNITIES of this curious environment, we come up with this…
THIS IS THE MOST REVEALING TRUTH TO DATE THAT EVERY ANTIPOLEÑO MUST TAKE THE TIME TO CONTEMPLATE ABOUT!
How can the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Phivolcs, and even the local government keep silent of what they have known all along but chose not to tell the people of Antipolo? It will be on the seared conscience of these public officials who just opt to look away, pretending to be deaf and dumb…. God and history will be their judge when –and not if– the inevitable happens.
(Well, while “deaf and dumb,” you still have eyes don’t you? –to look into the troubling prospect of an abandoned and unguarded Wawa Dam collapsing tectonically. Remember it is at the juncture of two faultlines? Or God forbid, some terrorist act is not a remote possibility considering the surrounding mountains are NPA territories. At the very least, this water-soaked structure can be crumbling onto itself as it ages. Built in 1902 and retired in 1962 with no maintenance whatsoever! “But why maintain when you retire it?” Enclosed in that warped logic is a sure recipe for disaster –a disaster just waiting to happen! For crying out loud, if you retire a dam you dismantle it and not IGNORE hoping that no one takes notice. Sheesh!)