ANTIPOLO: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT (they’re showing but not telling).

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(For the past two weeks, i’ve been having reservations of whether or not to push the “publish” button and post this page. It hasn’t been easy for me. But in light of why Phivolcs is in the news almost daily and warning that the West Valley Fault is ripe for moving, and stressing that about 31,000 to 33,500 can die when a 7.2 magnitude earthquake finally happens, i convinced myself that it ought to bring more good than bad if i share this now. i pray that i’m doing the right thing. God help us all.)

“Antipoleño, watch carefully the animated map below and try to get a good sense of its message.
…better yet, if you have Google Earth installed, download this and double-click to “spread” on Google Earth a rough overlay of the “red patch,” which is about 30 meters –plus/minus– that the images therein may be off (what can one expect when i only have to work on this miniscule source, but which have multiple alignment points, however, as provided by the three-toed bird foot shape of the Laguna de Bay for fairly good accuracy).

newcomer

Connecting the dots…

In 2013, i came across the Philippine Geoportal and have since marveled at its interactive risk maps that carefully assessed the risk of natural hazards in identified Philippine areas “for proper long-term planning in dealing with disaster scenarios.” The web site was the result of a study worth 5.5 million AUD which was funded by the Australian Agency for International Development with the technical support from Geoscience Australia, and led by the government agencies under the Collective Strengthening of Community Awareness on Natural Disaster — composed of the Office of Civil Defense, Mines and Geosciences Bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Phivolcs and National Mapping and Resource Information Authority.

An earthquake study involving the Marikina Valley Fault Line System is only part of what the Philippine Geoportal covers.

geoportal screenshot

NOTE: This image and subsequent images pertaining to the Philippine Geoportal site are screen captures of actual web pages. Occasional enhancements were effected to animate certain images to better communicate the data embedded in them.

Though the web site is a storehouse of information, i noticed it differs in certain ways from my established paradigm of the Marikina Valley Fault Line System. To illustrate, i used a slide of a map from the presentation of Jane T. Punongbayan, Ph.D. from Phivolcs dated Feb. 18, 2011 that I posted here. I compared the map used by Punongbayan with the interactive map from the Philippine Geoportal.

1. The shape and appearance of the Geoportal map (above) appears fuller on the upper part compared to Punongbayan’s leaner map (below) indicating coverage of additional areas in the AusAid study, but which the Geoportal map does not name or specify which location.

deaths analysis_old

Okay. You may notice that i picked the slide with the gruesome topic of “Number of Deaths Analysis.” The reason is, with loss of lives as the ultimate and extreme event that one dreads can happen during an earthquake, there is apparent discrepancy between the two maps that i cannot yet wrap my mind around; although with the Geoportal map that i repeat below, the data shown tell the “Estimated Number of Fatalities M7.2 (absolute)” from a 7.2 magnitude ground shaking, which is the closest category that can compare with the Punongbayan map “Number of Deaths Analysis” data.

Any which way one looks at it, both carry a message of quake carnage!

estimated number of fatalities

While the Geoportal map is the latest that can be interpreted (rightly or wrongly) as to supercede the MMEIRS Scenario 08 study of Punongbayan –but then again, maybe not– both deal with the topic of a great number of deaths and fatalities.

The one that boggles the mind is the abrupt change (or call it an about face) in a particular data. In the Punongbayan map, a swath of red color positioned diagonally, like an oil spill, depicts literally a great number of deaths that can occur in a scenario 08, which is a 7.2 magnitude earthquake event. Tagging points on the map and identifying these places on Google Earth reveal the name of the original danger spots. Even on the map itself, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Manila, San Juan, and Mandaluyong, or just portions of these places, can be read.

(*Animation below of the big, big difference between the 2011 Jane Punongbayan map and the 2013 Phil. Geoportal map from the 2013 AusAid Hazard Maps Study.)

Whats-the-Diff04

With the new data from Philippine Geoportal, i am looking for these original danger spots but it’s as if the slate is wiped clean! So far, what keeps cropping up and almost persistent in trying to be noticed is this unnamed “newcomer” that is quite unmistakable and also so uncanny in appearing with regularity in every ground shaking data. It looks like a giant RED sponge that came out of nowhere and suddenly siphoning off all bad karma to itself, so to speak. Please pay close attention to the animation below:

that-patch-of-red-02

red-sponge

Why all of a sudden one gets an impression that it is no longer Marikina getting the trauma of having its name attached to the infamous fault line but something else?

Because this big area dotting the landscape like a taunting bullseye appears literally like a red flag waving next to the map label ANTIPOLO, that someone suggested it had to be Antipolo.

Could be. But the problem is Antipolo is not listed in the Phivolcs report entitled “Update on the Earthquake Hazards and Risk Assessment of Greater Metropolitan Manila Area” dated November 14, 2013, as shown below:

Solidum-Update-of-Earthquake-Hazards-and-Risk-Assessment-of-MMla-14Nov2013_Page_32

In fact, i don’t hear Antipolo being mentioned anywhere near discussions of earthquakes at all, except for a few strange occurrences where my blog’s dashboard detected search engines querying for an “Antipolo fault line” where –to my knowledge– there was none.

As a side note but nevertheless a very important one, one also gets the impression that the West Valley Fault as depicted in the the Philippine Geoportal (below) is cut short and trimmed to appear only in the south, beginning in Muntinlupa and heading southward, and with the East Valley Fault at the other end nonexistent! Unless i missed it (if i did i apologize), but the screen capture below of “Ground Rupture Hazard” is the only data from the Philippine Geoportal that show the location of the West Valley Fault.

Ground Rupture Hazard

What gives? Maybe it’s just a technical glitch or something (maybe because the software is BETA?), but its perceived effect is the West Valley Fault, along with the non-existing East Valley Fault, does not pose danger and spares numerous subdivisions, villages, and communities where the fault lines cut through in deadly anonymity. Compare this side by side with the West and East Valley Faults depicted in the Punongbayan report here, entitled “MMEIRS Scenario 8: Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake along the West Valley Fault System by JANE T. PUNONGBAYAN, Ph.D.,” the discrepancy is glaring that we don’t know what to believe.

Between the Punongbayan study and the new data coming from the Philippine Geoportal, did we miss anything? Any game changer that throws off balance the focus of everyone –yet keeps mum about it?

While my blog has been keen in pinpointing these subdivisions, villages, and communities that lie clueless to the hidden danger beneath them, with these new developments that appear sanctioned by national officialdom, what can be done to solve the mystery is to locate in Google Earth the places identified with this “newcomer” which seem to bear much of the pain, the curse, and the agony that otherwise would befall on the greater metropolis.

I did not invent this data. It’s been there all along for all to see, and miss! It’s a bitter pill to swallow. It’s the hard truth. But it is the truth that can set many free.

To solve the mystery, let us unravel some facts first –beginning with my accidental discovery of two (2) unaccounted faultlines (since Phivolcs does not name it, i’ll call them the Tulisanes Faultlines  🙂

01_take note

Below is a blow-up of the area in the yellow circle.

03

It is interesting to find the two faultlines below (with blue question marks) that lie close to and may even be said to be perpendicular and appear to be intersecting with the East and West Valley Faults, which by themselves are placed curiously parallel. What forces are there present and at the same time hidden as depicted by the strange layout of these four faultlines…

02

animated-map-and-google-3

If we were to plug in the data found in the Philippine Geoportal (the red region below) and relate them to the two faultlines (ghostly yellow green lines), and the geography and ROADS and COMMUNITIES of this curious environment, we come up with this…

Antipolo Danger Map

THIS IS THE MOST REVEALING TRUTH TO DATE THAT EVERY ANTIPOLEÑO MUST TAKE THE TIME TO CONTEMPLATE!

How can the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Phivolcs, and even the local government keep silent of what they have known all along but chose not to tell the people of Antipolo? It will be on the seared conscience of these public officials who just opt to look away, pretending to be deaf and dumb…. God and history will be their judge when –and not if– the inevitable happens.

(Well, while “deaf and dumb,” you still have eyes don’t you? –to look into the troubling prospect of an abandoned and unguarded Wawa Dam collapsing tectonically. Remember it is at the juncture of two faultlines? Or God forbid, some terrorist act is not a remote possibility considering the surrounding mountains are NPA territories. At the very least, this water-soaked structure can be crumbling onto itself as it ages. Built in 1902 and retired in 1962 with no maintenance whatsoever! “But why maintain when you retire it?” Enclosed in that warped logic is a sure recipe for disaster –a disaster just waiting to happen! For crying out loud, if you retire a dam you dismantle it and not IGNORE hoping that no one takes notice. Sheesh!)

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30 Responses to ANTIPOLO: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT (they’re showing but not telling).

  1. Ma. Luisa M. Lacdos says:

    My family lives in La Salle Heights just below La Salle College Antipolo. which stands so high on a rock foundation.. Our houses are built around the school. I know that faultlines are found in mountain ranges the reason why mountains are uneven, with ravines, cliffs etc. Although we live on the plain areas, I am afraid because roads in our subdivision have many breaks. NOT ALL RESIDENTS OF ANTIPOLO KNOW ABOUT THIS INFORMATION in your report. I am in my second home, USA and recently a dam collapsed in San Jose CA, USA, with just an ordinary rain and the place was flooded.. May God’s hands do something in our present situation . teacherlouie1965@yahoo.com

    Like

    • Ma. Luisa M. Lacson says:

      Correction please, my name is Ma. Luisa M. Lacson

      Like

    • tulisanes says:

      Your post is encouraging because sometimes i feel i’m alone on this; like, to many people i’m the boy who cries wolf. But hey, regardless of how i interpret things, the fact is an unheard of disaster is coming our way, and the “red patch” from the 2013 AusAid Hazard Maps Study warns about this! The trouble is, i think, Phivolcs is downplaying the situation, understating the danger, and keeping things low so as not to stir unnecessary trouble for itself.

      Like

    • tulisanes says:

      Like your situation with a dam in the US, i myself am concerned about the Wawa Dam in Montalban collapsing. Doesn’t the NDRRMC care if it does, particularly when there are communities in its path to be inundated?

      Like

  2. WMT says:

    I am on my late 30s. When the famous earthquake hits baguio in 1990, I am on my grade school years. After such, I remember there’s been circulation of zerox copy of fault lines and which areas going to be affected. If I remember it correctly, this map even shows hairlines connected to the major faultlines. I still remember that Marcos Hway from Ligaya to Cogeo is sitting right on top of the faultline, Marikina Heights is greatly affected, Pasig (boundary Cainta) is affected, etc.. I am just wondering who has this data and if we can compare it on current fault line map. I strongly believe there’s a big change and some of those faultlines are not in the current map. Either it was a wrong data or something they take fore granted since mas malaki ung current east valley and west valley fault line.

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    • tulisanes says:

      WMT, i got ahold of that xerox copy of faultlines in 199O, which i kept and rediscovered about 10 years later; then realizing we had more powerful computers than the XT PCs running on DOS a decade back, and my office had a scanner and a book-bound map of metro manila; meshing curiosity with new-found skills in photoshop, i scanned the metro maps and the phivolcs map and assembled their files and overlay the latter on the former. to my shock and surprise, i discovered the west valley fault ran right smack under MY HOUSE! what chances might that happen to someone who pieces together an earthquake map for more than a nerve-wracking month –fours hours daily– as a weird hobby? for a long time i was in disbelief. then i realized it was my epiphany: a surreal revelation that this was my MISSION IN LIFE …which to date culminated in the metro manila wide campaign some years back to save and alert SCHOOLS and communities that are in the destructive path of the west valley fault (thanks to an influential follower of this blog who triggered an avalanche of awareness).

      I digress. Back to your post…

      No, no faultline along Marcos Hiway from Ligaya to Cogeo. But beyond Cogeo, over the top and behind Sun Valley, there are two faultlines there that Phivolcs is not naming (thus, i adopt and christen them the TULISANES FAULTLINES –nice ring to it, eh?).

      Again, i digress. These two faults intersect in Montalban at the point where the ABANDONED Wawa Dam lies (funny the mountain that split right where the river flows nurses the Bernardo Carpio legend. This giant was apparently trapped inside the mountain, and he pushed it apart creating a river flow and causing an EARTHQUAKE while doing it. An earthquake: coincidence?

      Now what is the significance if these two faultlines? Now children, gather round and listen to a scary story.

      When the west valley fault was formed, the land mass BROKE off and dropped thus creating a VALLEY. But has it ever occured to anyone that when one end dropped, the opposite end while it did not drop, broke off and may just be hanging precariously by a thread? Imagine a corner roof of a house, specifically the “medya agua” that is usually bordered by rain gutter. Imagine at the height of a typhoon, amid howling wind, this corner roof broke off, fell –but not totally– and hangs precariously just by a thread. THIS is the picture of the west valley fault, where one point is lower. But a very powerful quake can dislodge and totally break off the hanging “roof corner” and the entire “medya agua” falls! By high magnitude earthquake, this can mean SEVERAL TENS OF FEET of land drop (whether slow or sudden, only God knows)! No wonder the “red patch” i point out in the new Phivolcs study gets the most number and degree of damages and toll on human life and property!

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      • WMT says:

        Thanks for the response. It seems based on your map, SunValley/ForestHills/Cogeo is about 5 to 7kms away from the “Tulisanes Fault Line” :). And from its left side, about 8 to 10kms away from the east valley fault.

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      • Maria RP says:

        Thank you for this valuable information. I emailed Phivolcs and was advised that they have forwarded my inquiry on this to the right department. I shared your link on this article with them. My parents live near Masinag market in Mayamot, Antipolo. Please continue to provide any new updates on this. Salamat po.

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    • tulisanes says:

      By the way, anybody interested HOW THE WEST VALLEY FAULT WAS FORMED (just a scary humbling theory of mine)?

      Like

  3. mimi says:

    hello sir, my sister po is planning to buy a property in antipolo sa may town and country hills and baba po nun ay valley golf since nasa fault line po pala siya hindi ko na lang po ipabibili coz its dangerous . people should be informed nagbebenta nasa fault line gosh, and ganda pa naman po overlooking > will pass nag offer pa naman po ng price ang sister ko. thank you for information more power to you sir

    Like

    • WMT says:

      I was told that almost daily, meron tremors sa Town&Country. If you notice, all lots are purchased pero konti lang nagpatayo.

      Like

  4. billy says:

    my goodness.. nakatira po kami sa antipolo. ahm but yah hindi ko first time makabasa ng ganto, pointing na ang antipolo ang pinakamapupuruhan. last time kasi ang explanation nila jan ay ganito: compared daw sa mga high rise buildings sa metro manila, ang mga infrastructures na itinatayo sa antipolo mostly ay mabababa heightwise, low-cost, at puro residential. therefore hindi na pinadaan sa pagssuri ng mga eksperto like engineers, architects etc. i believe this post content and yep magiging aware kami para dito. thank you very much for this informative article/blog.

    Like

  5. Jackie Serrano says:

    Ang Cainta, Rizal po ba affected?

    Like

  6. Ellen Carlos says:

    hi po., ilang metro po ba ang layo namin sa fault line? I live in Darimbang st., maharlika village taguig city…tnx po

    Like

  7. Nimfa Doroteo-Camua says:

    thanks a lot for the reply, Tulisanes. I admire your patience in replying to the same query over and over again like “malapit ba kami sa faultline”, etc. I think Philvocs should announce once and for all, paulit ulit, repeatedly, once again (hay,,,but Filipinos are really makulit) na earthquakes cannot be predicted when and how although we have an idea where. BUT when it strikes the ripple effect will reach areas beyond the 7 km buffer zone. Look at what happened to Baguio; Metro Manila also felt it. A friend was recently in a meeting with some Philvocs guys who are saying that based on the data on hand, Manila will be isolated from the rest of the country when the Big One comes. But the impact of Wawa Dam when the Big One comes is a cause for concern. After reading your thoughts/analysis on the Dam, I felt like “wow, what the world; you are right on the spot!” I wish there are more intelligent & incisive discussions about this!

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  8. Hi sir,
    It is with deepest appreciation that you shared this info to the public.
    I am presently residing at santolan, marcos highway, dun po sa dulo po ng lrt2 station, and
    my mother and sister are living at GSIS st dulong bayan II san mateo, rizal.
    My two daughters are currently enrolled at St scho marikina and my husband is working also in marikina, PMFTC to be precised.
    Based on the map, if i am right, our locations are almost near the fault lines.
    Sir, i am most interested to know the extent of damaging effects on my mother’s location.
    please advise. thanks in advance.

    Like

    • tulisanes says:

      if you are familiar with the faultline system by now, that area in gsis is between the west and east valley faults. there was a time i had to ask why the east valley fault is short compared to the 100+ kms of the west valley fault. then i stumbled onto something that might as well explain that. hopefully, you read these posts and get insight like the way i did:

      https://tulisanes.wordpress.com/2015/03/24/old-abandoned-wawa-dam-on-the-lap-of-3-fault-lines/
      https://tulisanes.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/hidden-in-plain-sight-theyre-showing-but-not-telling/

      the red patch that looks ominous in the philippine geoportal seems far off and seems to have “no connect” with the west and east valley faults, right? but then the question is, why such depth of tragedy is expected to come out of the region? the answer may well be those two unnamed faults that seem to join with the east valley fault. the thing is, if the west valley fault moves, this may well generate movement with the east valley fault, which can then trigger the movement of the two unnamed faults, and cause MASSIVE LANDSLIDE OR A BIG CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAIN TO SLIP AND COLLAPSE in like manner that created the marikina valley, where the ground slipped and dropped several meters below ground level.

      what gave away this possible scenario is the orientation of the red patch in the philippine geoportal, which is a seeming 90 degrees or perpendicular with one of the unnamed faultlines, as seen here:

      if you study the places identified inside the red patch, the lower left and right sides of its fringes correspond to the overlooking or cliff side as you go up antipolo. coincidence?

      though this seems unrelated to the area of your mother in san mateo, i fear that when the cascading effect of a powerfful earthquake happens, it can have some effect with that area near the east valley fault, which is kind of strange to be sandwiched between both the east and west valley faults.

      if you view the east valley fault and the two unnamed faults together with fresh eyes, and try to imagine the dynamics happening with the positions of these lines, think about them as sort of in a midway action of something breaking off and being pulled down by a great force of gravity.

      for those quick to dispel my conjecture or theory as a wild story, it is merely an attempt to explain some FACTS insinuated in the philippine geoportal. so go dump this crazy imaginative attempt along with the theory that the red patch may as well be an alien landing strip. IT DOESN’T MATTER. what matters is how authorities will explain the great number of deaths, injuries, destruction, and what have you that may one day come out of the region.

      Like

  9. Rafael says:

    Sir, please tell me directly, will Brgy. Mambugan, more specifically, F.E.U. Village, be heavily affected by the earthquake? These places are in the lower part of Antipolo. Please don’t comment any links or one of your posts, just tell me directly. And while your at it, can you tell me when do you think the earthquake will happen?

    Like

  10. merieanne says:

    Hi po ulit.. Sir makulit na tlaga ko sobra, Hindi ako confident Sa pagkakaintindi ko Sa bago mong labas na link.. Alam ko po na ang san Mateo rizal ay belong Sa mga high risk, nakatira po kami Sa hilario st. Sta Ana San Mateo rizal, likod po Ng plza at ilang dips Lang po ang kayo sakin Ng nuestra seniors parish church. Gusto ko po malaman ilang metro po kami Ng kayo Sa fault line.. At nilabas Ng philvocs na kabilang ang Santa Ana Sa mga may fault line.. Thank you po sobra Sa mga info.. God bless po

    Like

    • tulisanes says:

      ito po ba ang sa inyo? kung gayun –ito na po ang bagong fault trace (2015). palaisipan kung bakit sinabi ng phivolcs na high risk kayo? eh nasa kulang-kulang sa isang kilometro ang layo niyo sa west valley fault.

      Like

  11. Marilou Canlas says:

    Hi Sir! how about Rancho Estate I, II, IIi, and IV, and SSS Village. Rancho & SSS is near Masinag, Marcos Hiway, and Conception Marikina – May we know if these 2 subdivision is/are under faultline/s. Tks and Godbless.

    Like

    • tulisanes says:

      i don’t really know all the places that people are suggesting that i check. but i had a hunch and checked your subdivisions on google earth. they fell in between existing ones that i tracked and they might as well join those i identified here.

      this post may be one of the most important readings you will ever make.

      https://tulisanes.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/hidden-in-plain-sight-theyre-showing-but-not-telling/

      pls. pay great attention to the data this one is suggesting (also in the said post):

      i cannot really say what this one is really all about because authorities seem silent about it. the people should demand an explanation. in that case, YOU residents then!

      Like

      • Hi sir, I’ve noticed you included cupang national school. There are villages right after marikina heights that are considered cupang antipolo like ponte verde, villa grande, our lady of lourdes. You cannot go to these places without passing through Marikina. Hindi po kaya yun ang areas na kasama dun sa red mark sa map? I heard these villages are also connected to san mateo rizal

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  12. Ana Gustilo says:

    Hi – will appreciate your advise as to whether our place is safe or not. We are living in San Lorenzo South, Sta. Rosa, Laguna (near to Enchanted Kingdom). Thank you in advance. May God bless you with your sincere concern on people’s safety.

    Like

  13. Nimfa Doroteo-Camua says:

    Dear Tulisanes, Thanks a lot for this entry. So, Antipolo and the Rizal areas are on red flag? In your own opinion, why the difference between the Jane Punongbayan study and the Geoportal report? I know you will say ‘I wish I knew’ but, thinking aloud, what could it be? Could Philvolcs be protecting something? Thanks a lot for your reply.

    Like

    • tulisanes says:

      ‘I wish I knew’ : )

      first of all i just noticed DISCREPANCIES that produced a disconsonance in my head that i simply cannot shake off. but at the very beginning when i started this blog i already noticed that what seemed a very powerful data was just RAW DATA that meant nothing if you cannot extract the juices and all the goodies from them. like for instance, when i looked closely, i noticed schools on the fault line and later posted a list of these schools for those in authority to do something about (i’m glad now that phivolcs is talking about the safety of school children). i also found a way to identify each community affected by the fault lines; otherwise, we’d be like flying on a jumbo jet but not knowing where we are so we can land the jet safely.

      what i’m saying is that, it could be when the technology was handed to the philippine government, there was so much powerful raw data in them but that well-planned efforts and well-meaning intentions to process this data into helpful and useful information were lacking.

      Like

      • reggie mateo says:

        gud pm sir gusto ko lang malaman kung kasama malapit sa faultline ang brgy namin sa PAMAHAY VILLAGE SAN JOSE RODRIGUEZ RIZAL .. malapit po kami sa tagumpay witch is nasa faultline ata sya if im not mistaken .. tnx sir pls reply

        Like

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