Links and Maps

Please check for UPDATED maps and NEW maps in the list below…

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Maps that are already UPDATED are indicated on their links. For maps still awaiting an update, please come back regularly to check on maps you are concerned about. Or click the “Follow” button on the lower right so you will be notified through e-mail when posts are made. NOTE: The updating of earthquake maps proceeds at random….

• Homepage
• Is your house standing on an earthquake faultline? (though this was posted in the early days, it is still a good post. For targeted and updated info, pls. see below the list of newly identified communities that have been sitting along on a fault line.)
• MMEIRS Scenario 8: Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake along the West Valley Fault System by JANE T. PUNONGBAYAN, Ph.D.
• MMDA Disaster Preparedness Program
• Earthquake Personal Preparedness Plan
• Correct Earthquake Response: DROP, COVER, HOLD ON
• “The Triangle of Life” NOT true …an urban legend?
• Historical Philippine Earthquakes from 1599 to 1909
• WHAT IF ANGAT DAM COLLAPSES? In the Line of Fire.
• WHAT IF ANGAT DAM COLLAPSES? …water seeks its own level.
• Q & A (Quakes and Answers)
• “So what about Eastwood Greenview in the shadow of Wawa Dam and La Mesa Dam?”
  • Old abandoned Wawa Dam on the lap of 3 fault lines?
  • ANTIPOLO: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT (they’re showing but not telling) part 1.
  • ANTIPOLO: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT (they’re showing but not telling) part 2.
• Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment (November 2014)

In the order of their location from north-east to south-west, these neighborhoods lie directly on the deadly path of the Marikina Valley Fault Line System:

• Banai Ville and Catalino 1 in Brgy. San Isidro, Montalban
• Jovil 3 in Brgy. San Isidro, Montalban
• Phase 1-A Sub Urban in Brgy. San Jose, Montalban
• Christineville & Pamayanan ng Tagumpay in Brgy. San Jose, Montalban
• Mediterranean Heights Phase 1, Bukluran Hilltop Abatex and Children Mission Foundation in Brgy. San Jose, Montalban
• San Mateo and Montalban (on the lesser known East Valley Fault)
• Bagong Silangan, Filinvest Heights and Sitio Bakal
• Filinvest Homes 2
• Villa Amor Uno and Filinvest Homes 2
• Richville, Garland Woodcrest Forest and North View 1
• Richville and Matandang Balara
• Buenavista Ville and Batasan Hills
• LOYOLA GRAND VILLAS, CAPITOL PARK HOMES, AND BUENAVISTA VILLE (2015) – UPDATED – 05/30/2015
• LOYOLA GRAND VILLAS (2015) – UPDATED – 05/29/2015
• Brgy. Barangka in Marikina
• Ateneo Campus
• Brgy. Barangka, Loyola Subd. and Loyola Grand Villas
• BLUE RIDGE B, CINCO HERMANOS, INDUSTRIAL VALLEY, MONTE VISTA, AND URBAN BLISS (2015) – UPDATED – 06/01/2015
• Brgy. Libis in Quezon City
• Valle Verde 6, Greenmeadows, and White Plains
• Valle Verde 1 Through 5
• KAWILIHAN VILLAGE AND BAGONG ILOG (2015) – UPDATED – 06/04/2015
• EAST AND WEST REMBO (2015) – UPDATED – 06/05/2015
• Rizal and Pembo
• STO. NINO VILLAGE, WILDCAT VILLAGE AND PALAR VILLAGE (2015) – UPDATED – 06/07/2015
• Central and North Signal Villages
• “The South”
• Overview of Muntinlupa
• Brgys. Sucat, Buli and Cupang in Muntinlupa
• Brgy. Alabang in Muntinlupa
• Brgy. Bayanan in Muntinlupa
• Brgy. Putatan in Muntinlupa
• National Road in Tunasan, Muntinlupa
• Sto. Nino Village (Phase 1) in Muntinlupa
• Tunasan Proper in Muntinlupa
• Tunasan-Cuyab Boundary
• St. Peregrine Laziosi Parish and Warehouses in Muntinlupa
• R.M. Tiosejo Subdivision in Muntinlupa
• Parkhomes in Muntinlupa
• Parkhomes and Sto. Nino Village in Muntinlupa
• Parkhomes and Villa Carolina 1 in Muntinlupa
• Susana Heights in San Pedro, Laguna
• Monark, MMG and Holiday Homes in San Pedro
• La Marea Hills and Brgy. San Antonio in San Pedro
• Calendola, Harmony Homes, Villa Olympia 4, Stonecrest and Brgy. San Jose in G.M.A. Cavite
• Villa Olympia 6 and Juana 3
• Brgy. San Jose, Juana 3 and Southbreeze
• The Manila Southwoods & Manila Southwoods Golf and Country Club in Carmona, Cavite
• San Lazaro Race Track & Casino Filipino in Carmona, Cavite
• The Beacon Academy, Inc. in Biñan, Laguna
• Into Unknown Territories

• What about Eastwood City?
• What about Bonifacio Global City?
• What about Ortigas District?
• Where on Earth (for selected requests only)

In Focus:

If you know them, tell them …maybe in the future, that will one day save people.

• SCHOOLS ON THE FAULT LINE…
• CHURCHES: St. Peregrine Laziosi Parish, San Jose Manggagawa Chapel, and Camp Atienza Chapel
• SM Center Muntinlupa
• City Hall of Muntinlupa
• Universal Robina Corp. (2015) – NEW – 06/04/2015
• …

2015 Fault Trace vs. 2010 Fault Trace

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Though with slight differences, the maps are generally the same. However…

At close inspection, the 2015 fault trace generated from Phivolcs’ Valley Fault System (VFS) Atlas deviates from the 2010 fault trace at most minute points. This means structures thought to be sitting atop a fault line may not be sitting there at all, and those next to or thought lucky to be spared from being on a fault line may turn out to be lying on the fault surprisingly. With the 2015 fault trace, it would seem that new fault lines appear while some of the old ones disappear –drastically changing lives. Yet the simple explanation is, plotted points shift thus making the faults move several meters away from their previous locations.

Because the difference between the old and new fault traces are very significant, and that the 2015 fault trace has superceded the 2010 fault trace in use, this is seen as a precedent wherein an official fault trace can still be replaced by a newer fault trace, bringing with it the problems associated with a rogue, “wandering” fault line. While this casts doubt on the finality of the 2015 fault trace, meaning in the future there may be an update that shows a different, divergent fault trace that again changes the ball game, people are also realizing that plotting and pinpointing fault traces is not an exact science and to a certain extent, it is informed guesswork. On the macro level, the accuracy of fault traces are still better than good –to the credit of the laudable men and women of Phivolcs who try hard to give the public credible information; it is on the micro level, however, where accuracy matters that spell the difference between life and death, but where today’s technology is sadly lacking.

In light of this reality, people who are affected, or potentially affected, by either the 2015 fault trace or the 2010 fault trace should familiarize themselves with the information provided by the other fault trace to get a holistic assessment of their situation before deciding based on what their intellect or gut feel tells them.

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Taal Volcano lies on the West Valley Fault

“Speak with data,” yesterday’s catchphrase that still carries weight around. My regret was having significant info grab me but let its source slip by, i guess, absent-mindedly.

Without success, i’ve been trying to locate the source of my last post about a geologist who surmised a fatal movement of the West Valley Fault could be triggered by massive volcanic activity from the Taal Volcano.

…To which Phivolcs refuted indirectly as NOT HAPPENING. Its presscon on Youtube:

However, i found solid information from three scientific sources that may partly be basis for the controversial statement of my elusive and missing geologist; as follows:

(on page 5) …Bounding the west side of the valley is the Western Marikina Valley fault (WMVF), which extends an additional 70 km south through metropolitan Manila UNTIL IT BECOMES OBSCURED BY YOUNG VOLCANIC DEPOSITS OF THE TAAL VOLCANO in the Macolod Corridor volcanic zone…
(from
https://www.scribd.com/document/177160353/Expert-Evaluation-of-West-Valley-Fault )

(on page 18) …The MVFS appears to terminate to the south against another tectonic feature, the Macolod Corridor which is a zone of volcanoes related northeast extensional structures that define a rift… THE TRACE OF THE WMVF FARTHER SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, IF IT EXISTS, HAS BEEN BURIED BY YOUNG ERUPTIVE MATERIALS FROM TAAL VOLCANO.
(from https://www.scribd.com/document/131410190/Neotectonics-of-the-Marikina-Valley-Fault-System-MVFS-and-Tectonic-Framework-of-Structures-in-Northern-and-Central-Luzon-Philippines )

At this point, the West Valley Fault can be compared to a long electrical cord that crosses the middle of a room. At the farthest point, the cord slips under a carpet, leaving people guessing whether the cord goes further straight, bends and changes direction or just stops somewhere. But then a source below hits the nail on the head.

(on page 74) …BOTH EARLY AND MORE RECENT INVESTIGATORS SUGGEST that the west Marikina Valley fault may extend south of the Marikina Valley along the west side of Laguna de Bay AS FAR SOUTH AS TAAL LAKE.
(from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252222140_Multiple_Large_Earthquakes_in_the_Past_1500_Years_on_a_Fault_in_Metropolitan_Manila_the_Philippines )

We could take the side of Phivolcs when it said there is no study that indicates a volcanic eruption can cause tectonic plates to move.

In the same vein, it may be said there is no study yet that will tell if explosive eruptions of the Taal Volcano will not have an effect on the Valley Fault Line right under it. If there is, it may be like a wedge splitting the crack wider.

Maybe now it is time for such study, specially when scientists are realizing there is a possible fault line where a volcano is threatening communities with deadly explosive eruption.

With surprising information that a major fault line may run under an active volcano, it is not enough to announce there is no official study attesting to it yet and, therefore, ignore.

Todate, Taal volcano has had a recorded history of 34 volcanic eruptions in 448 years. Its greatest recorded eruption occurred in 1754, while the last time the dreaded West Valley Fault moved was in 1658, which set the two events 96 years apart. To think, the much-anticipated movement of the West Valley Fault is long OVERDUE, and Phivolcs now is not discounting the 1754 scenario of violent eruption from happening.

If anything, it appears that one is catching up with the other.

Lastly, it appears Phivolcs has known all along that Taal Volcano lies on the West Valley Fault. Please note carefully the illustration with a logo that mentions DOST and PHIVOLCS. To dispel any more doubts, the caption tells it all, with mention of the former Phivolcs head, the late Dr. Raymudo Punongbayan.

Caption:
Figure III-2. The West Valley Fault extends from Taal Volcano through Laguna, the western edge of Laguna de Bay up to Angat Dam in the north. Modified from Punongbayan (2011).

Source of visual and caption:
https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.irdrinternational.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FORIN-VFS-Philippines_pt1_web.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjVxqbK5ornAhVaQd4KHTdbAYkQFjAAegQIABAB&usg=AOvVaw3MP9VvKEiusGL7NhQHxfZd

****
POSTSCRIPT: My thoughts on lots of talk about our government to build dedicated evacuation centers nationwide so that when disasters hit, school children will no longer be deprived of their education when schools are used as evacuation centers.

My suggestion is wherever there are vast tracts of idle lands within or in proximity to communities, let the government purchase and develop these lands into NATURE PARKS teeming with carefully planned and planted trees, grass and bushes, with hidden or camouflaged iron poles everywhere with hooks, attachments, or what-have-you for instant installation of giant collapsible tents to temporarily house evacuees. And the park toilets can be constructed to meet the demands of hundreds of evacuees. Maybe we can call these parks BAYANIHAN PARKS in honor of kind hearted people everywhere reaching out to the unfortunate others.

During good times, these are parks; bad times, instant evacuation centers.

TAAL VOLCANO & THE BIG ONE

Not to stir up panic, Tulisanes is calling for VIGILANCE more than ever.

As Phivolcs announced this morning to prepare for the worse with the Alert Level 4 status given to Taal Volcano, i find it relevant to share something just as worse, if not worser.

My research once came upon a sole reference that, though mentioned just in passing, for me it stood out immediately. Where an unnamed geologist theorized the 7.2 magnitude earthquake expected from the much-anticipated West Valley Fault movement COULD BE triggered by massive volcanic activity from the Taal Volcano.

It made sense. Because the long stretch of the West Valley fault trace, on one end of it, stops in the Laguna area. However, if one were to extend the trace further in ones imagination, much like one would with a sight line from a poised billiard stick, in UNCANNY COINCIDENCE it appears, the West Valley Fault points to the Taal crater as if it was some billiard pocket waiting in the distance.

A strong eruption of the Taal Volcano’s just might create a rip large enough to bring about The Big One.

ANTIPOLO: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT (they’re showing but not telling) part 2

>  Go to Links & Maps

Question now is, what sort of thing can happen in the red patch area?

WHAT SILENT DANGER LURKS

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Read part 1 first.

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Note:   the road that is a yellow line cutting through the red patch is MARCOS HIGHWAY; while the yellow line traversing the pink and then goes between the pink and red areas is SUMULONG HIGHWAY. Where these two lines intersect is Masinag. Notice also the faint bright green lines that are sort of “secret” fault lines that Phivolcs is not telling? These may well explain the unexplained danger the “red patch” hides.

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Can it be in the red patch area are the slopes of mountainside that will further drop when compromised land mass breaks off at its junction to these faults, as triggered by a 7.2 magnitude quake? Notice the “scooped” stretch along Marcos Highway, where an ocular visit to the area reveals rising  hills and mountains on one side while the other side is likewise rising with access roads to Sumulong Highway via Blue Mountain and Olalia Drive on Gate 2. It is the same rise in elevation that can be observed when driving along Sumulong Highway from Brgy. Mambugan to Valley Golf Subdivision and onward to St. Benilde College and so on.

The “valley” aspect (ground depression) when the east and west valley faults formed never quite followed suit along the stretch of Marcos Highway where the ground rises on its sides as mountain slopes. But the next predicted powerful earthquake may just turn the shallow scoop into a deep valley when the same land mass drops further by several tens of feet!

How big is the drop? If it is any indication, the disparity in the ground elevation of Katipunan Ave. in Quezon City and the Industial Valley Subdivision in Marikina, where these two are connected by a looping short road called Bitukang Manok, or the back of Ateneo University which is actually a ravine for the lowland Brgy. Barangka in Marikina below it, a vertical ground movement on the tell-tale red patch in Antipolo may just imitate this valley effect.

Though it is not a sink hole, but by another mechanism it can likewise have a disastrous effect with mass landslides triggered.

Videos, anyone? (you have to download them first.)
My recordings of Antipolo and the surrounding mountainsides as simulated (fairly) in the 3D environment of Google Earth.

https://www.mediafire.com/?wg78ly5xr24t62f
https://www.mediafire.com/?wg78ly5xr24t62f,4822wp

 

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>  Go to Links & Maps

EARTHQUAKE DRILL OK, BUT…

   tulisanes says:

For sometime I’ve been harboring these thoughts –so i just let it out. After watching on the news the metro wide earthquake drill dubbed SHAKEDRILL, the more i am convinced that i’ve seen these all before, particularly the media cooperating with public servants and politicians in putting up a convincing show of simulating earthquake scenarios and having ready responses for them.

Good, people! I’m sure to many when the Big One finally happens, they will have the presence of mind to act knowingly and decisively on matters of life and death.

All seem look familiar like the PRE-YOLANDA EVENTS, when politicians like mayors in Samar, Cebu, Leyte and other provinces in the Visayas announced proudly in media that they were ready for the incoming monster storm. Then it happened! They were hit in ways they weren’t expecting, particularly by the storm surges which until then were not part of the Filipinos’ vocabulary.

In the wake of devastation, those expected to come and rescue needed rescuing themselves. Like the rug was suddenly pulled from under the feet of these rescuers!

THIS VERY SAME SCENARIO CAN HAPPEN IN METRO MANILA.

i would like to suggest bringing the earthquake preparation to a notch above. Organize rescuers coming from cities outside of Metro Manila, or even coming from far-flung places like Cebu, Samar, Baguio, and other more progressive cities. The idea is they will be the ones ready to swoop down in the event the citizens of Metro Manila become so traumatized as to act and help themselves. Most likely our gallant rescuers would be busy attending to their families and neighbors first. And with communications probably affected, it would be very difficult to gather them and act out their drills.

Wise up and be more pro-active, Pilipinas!

FIRE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE

(A Quake Expert replies to my post “3 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment“)

Domingo G. Limeta says:

July 30, 2015 at 12:52 am (Edit)

FIRE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE

Good Day Mr. Tulisanes,

One of my colleagues in Los Angeles CA., (M.S. Geology) told me that “THERE IS NO PANACEA AGAINST EARTHQUAKES.”

The best methodologies are awareness, preparedness, safety, and counter-measures “EARTHQUAKE SAFETY AND HAZARDS MITIGATION – EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM.”

The ASCE “American Society Of Civil Engineers” emphasized the damaging effects of FIRE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE. Usually, the outcome aftermath of Major Earthquake is damages to man-made structures and large-scale metropolitan and industrial fires with some explosions.

In Metropolitan Manila alone, there are so many business and commercial establishments, and industrial facilities who are storing and utilizing huge quantities of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for cooking, heating, and other applications, and also to include residential houses and condominiums who are also using LPG. There are various industrial facilities who are storing and utilizing Hydrogen Gas & Acetylene Gas.

Now, these gases are classified as Hazardous being Explosive & Flammable. How many Petroleum Gas Stations who are storing huge quantities of liquid petroleum fuels.

Many of the above mentioned establishments are not yet equipped or installed SEISMIC GAS SHUT-OFF VALVES (S.G.S.V.s), and Earthquake Actuated Automatic Shut-Off Valve Systems. Also, the highly-toxic liquids and gases should also be provided with Earthquake Actuated Automatic Shut-Off Valve Systems.

So many establishments within Metropolitan Manila (commercial-industrial-to-include residential condominium) being located within Seismic Zone 4 (Peak Ground Acceleration of 0.40 g) approximately equivalent to Intensity VIII or higher in the Modified Mercalli Scale are in great risks. Their existing and operational Automatic Fire Sprinkler Piping Systems have no earthquake protection at all, such as Seismic Sway Bracing & Restraint Systems.

In an event of FIRE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE, the Automatic Fire Sprinkler Piping Systems will function to suppress and control building fires and fires within various commercial / industrial facilities.

The above safety methodologies are being stipulated by the applicable Building Model Codes & Standards, such as 2012 International Building Code (IBC), ASCE 7-10 Minimum Design Loads For Buildings & Other Structures, and the NFPA-13 Standard For The Installation Of Fire Sprinkler Systems.

It is the intent of the NFPA-13 Standard that every Fire Sprinkler Systems / Fire Protection Systems be operational before, during, and aftermath of Major Earthquake.

Who are the concerned people : Risk Insurers, Building Owners, Safety Engineers, Professional Design Engineers, Fire Marshals, Building Officials, Authority Having Jurisdictions, and of course the General Public.

Example : The Fire Marshals and Building Officials will not allow any commercial / industrial establishment to operate who are storing huge quantities of LPG without EARTHQUAKE ACTUATED SHUT-OFF VALVE SYSTEMS & EARTHQUAKE BRACING & RESTRAINST for Fire Protection Piping Systems.

Last January of this year (2015) I had a tele-conversation with a project engineer (Fire Protection Systems Contractor) and I have informed him the importance of Seismic Sway Bracing & Restraint Systems for Fire Protection Piping Systems. The reply was that, it is only additional costs.

WHAT . . . . !? It is being stipulated by the 2010 NFPA-13 Standard Section 9.3 “Protection Of Piping Against Damage Where Subject To Earthquakes.” The Fire Code Of The Philippines has no seismic (earthquake) provisions for the Fire Protection Systems. The Fire Code Of The Philippines will prompt you – for earthquake, refer to the NFPA-13 Standard.

So there it is, many are violating and circumventing the seismic provisions being stipulated by the applicable Building Model Codes & Standards.

Lastly, of all Essential Facilities, all Hospitals & Health Care Facilities shall have a comprehensive Earthquake Hazards Protections & Mitigations. Hospitals & Health Care Facilities are the institutions that will accommodate human casualties aftermath of a Major Earthquake. These essential facilities as much as possible shall function aftermath of a Major Earthquake. If these essential facilities were also been damaged by Major Earthquake, these facilities will not able to fully function to accommodate human casualties due to destructive earthquakes.

See the National Structural Code Of The Philippines to see what are other essential facilities should be protected against Major Earthquake.

Thank you very much.

DOMINGO G. LIMETA, JR.
Senior Seismic Engineering Consultant
Nonstructural / Structural Hazards Mitigation
Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

5 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

>  Go to Links & Maps

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“Recent inspection reveals that the downstream slope of the (Angat) dam has been deteriorating and is highly vulnerable to damage should a strong seismic movement occur in the area. Furthermore, the design criteria for the dam, particularly for seismicity, may no longer be sufficient considering that the facility is now more than four decades old.

“Damage to the Angat Dam due to earthquake poses a significant risk to Metro Manila. The possibility of damage in the dam’s slope will increase the water level of the Angat River and its tributaries and inundate low lying areas in Metro Manila and Bulacan. Damage to the dam will likewise cause long-term stoppage in water supply, which could seriously disrupt operations of business establishments and imperil the survival of Metro Manila residents.” -page 39

Disclaimer: It’s funny how oftentimes secrets are found out inside borrowed or lent usb drives where documents such as this one are jumbled up with popular mp3 songs or a hot avi video or a great group photo where people ask for jpeg copies of the shots and somebody carelessly use any usb drive to share the requested copies including, unwittingly, any juicy content found within that nobody bothered to delete after transferring the document to another computer. So, since then this document has changed hands many times….

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4 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

>  Go to Links & Maps

* * *

“34,000 killed instantly, 90 percent from pressure of collapsed physical structures and 20,000 dead after being trapped or burned …1.2 million homeless” -page 29

* * *

“City-wide power outages; some outages last up to 30 days. Buildings use generator capacity; Inability to secure Diesel for generation beyond existing storage capacity. No power in residences …City-wide water disruption expected for long term. No water in staff residences. buildings ration water supplied …Gasoline stations unreachable due to road congestion and structural collapse. Difficulty refueling vehicles …Looting limits food supplies. Many forced to live on existing rations until relief supplies arrive …Trash services suspended.” -page 32

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3 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

>  Go to Links & Maps

* * *

“Fire vulnerable areas of Metro Manila are Valenzuela, Caloocan and south of Quezon City west intersection, but many other areas are highly vulnerable. Experts agree that earthquake damages and casualties in Metro Manila will be caused first and most directly by building collapse and secondarily by fires spreading from residential buildings.” -page 19

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“Even in non-chaos times, Metro Manila’s overall firefighting capabilities are abysmal and its Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) is facing major resource problems, including a severe shortage of fire trucks, fire stations and trained manpower. By international standards, the fire truck to population ratio should be approximately 1:28,000 and the firefighter to population ratio should be 1:2,000. Applying those standards to a population of about 11.94 million, Metro Manila’s underequipped and undermanned situation is glaringly evident.

“Metro Manila’s top fire hazard is the 36-hectare Pandacan oil storage depot. Approximately 15,000 people live immediately around the facility (mostly in congested shanties) and many schools, universities and government offices are located in the vicinity to include the Malacañang Presidential Palace.” -page 20

* * *

“For both privately and publicly funded projects, many Philippine construction companies attempt to save money by circumventing and manipulating the building code compliance process and other critical provisions. Poorly paid government officials are more than willing to turn a blind eye to non-compliance with building codes and safety standards in exchange for a cash handout.

“Administrative interference, illegal awards of contracts or subcontracts of construction projects, disclosure of confidential project baseline price information to some companies prior to tendering and clients or government officers asking for money and/or in-kind payments from contractors are just some examples. In the private sector, this problem is considerably pervasive in lower grade buildings. PSA sources contend that corruption exists at nearly every stage of the building development process including procurement, materials purchasing, actual construction, commissioning, final cost settlement and evaluation of project quality at completion.” -page 23

* * *

“Perhaps more disturbing is the prevalence of kickbacks in public works projects which frequently result in substandard construction of roads, bridges, schools and other public buildings. PSA sources claim that construction projects funded by the government lose as much as 40 percent of its budget as contractors shave off allocated funds for the project to pay of  government officials. Some PSA sources also contend that it is common practice among legislators to demand 20-30 percent kickbacks from contractors for projects funded by local government. Another 10 percent is lost to bureaucratic corruption in the LGU offices responsible for issuing construction clearances and building permits.” -page 24

* * *

“As funds are sapped by corruption, many public facilities are built with substandard construction materials, making them highly vulnerable to earthquakes. According to a recent study by US-based Columbia University, the Philippines has some 15.6 million school-age children in earthquake zones. The danger becomes more imminent as construction of most public school buildings are exposed to the same levels of corruption as in any nationwide public works project. Many of these structures have not undergone structural evaluation and vulnerability assessment to strong tremors. Public hospitals, government offices, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure suffer the same potentially fatal flaws.” -pages 24 to 25

* * *

“In the event of a destructive earthquake, the Philippine government will be besieged. PHIVOLCS authorities lament that despite the publication of the MMIERS seven years ago with more than 100 earthquake disaster management recommendations as well as assistance from various international organizations and foreign governments, the Philippine government has not mobilized to make the improvements to its disaster management system that are so desperately required.

“Statistics show the there are less than 250 hospitals in Metro Manila. This figure is grossly insufficient for the estimated number of casualties and injuries in the event of a massive earthquake.” -page 26

* * *

“…the absence of a comprehensive fire hydrant network in Metro Manila. Since the state’s water distribution system in Metro Manila was privatized and split between Maynilad and Manila Water distribution firms in August 1997, fewer fire hydrants have been made available for BFP use. While Philippine law states that the BFP cannot be charged for the use of water, fire hydrant placement, maintenance and usage provisions were not vetted or approved during the privatization process.

“Approximately 70 percent of the fire hydrants in Metro Manila reportedly have no water. To add complexity to the matter, many fire hydrants have been stolen for their bronze content.”  -page 27

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2 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

>  Go to Links & Maps

* * *

“Taal Volcano has the greater potential of triggering an earthquake in Metro Manila as it sits on the southern end of the West Valley Fault System. Studies indicate that a massive magma movement from the Taal Volcano could trigger seismic movement in the West Valley Fault System.” -pages 11 to 12

* * *

“The most significant risk is associated with the potential disturbance of the offshore Manila trench which studies indicate could cause waves of up to four meters high.” -page 14

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“MMEIRs and other studies indicate that Metro Manila could be separated into four regions after a major earthquake due to collapsed buildings, elevated highways and bridges, and impassable roads and fire.” -page 17

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“There are 13 bridges across the Pasig River many of which are simply not built to withstand the impact of a major earthquake” -page 18

IMPORTANT: Please see Key Vulnerabilities of Business Districts in Metro Manila below.

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1 of 5 – Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

>  Go to Links & Maps

“In knowledge there is strength; in suppression of truth there is weakness and corruption.” What we choose will determine how we move forward toward our survival and restoration.

 

* * *

 “If Port au Prince is the most likely comparison to what may happen to Manila, it is notable that six months after the Haitian earthquake, most roads were still impassable or only of limited use. More than a year after the quake, rubble and collapsed buildings continued to dominate the city landscape. The majority of displaced people still lived in tent cities with no prospect for permanent homes with electricity or running water. Donor fatigue set in and estimates are that it will take up to 20 years for Port au Prince to recover.” -page 4

 

 * * *

“…there are several key seismic source zones which can impact the Philippines, including the entire Philippine Fault Zone (red lines) which is on land; and the Manila Trench, Philippine Trench, Negros Trench and Sulu Trench (purple flag lines) which are located offshore.” -page 6

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